Artificial Intelligence, Trust and Video. Why E-Commerce Will Reach 7.9 Trillion Dollars This Year
E-commerce will this year surpass a quarter of total global retail for the first time, with a volume of 7.9 trillion dollars.
But the more interesting story is not the absolute number. It is what is happening inside it. Growth is no longer driven mainly by more buyers or more items per order. It is driven by higher order values and fewer reasons to abandon a purchase at the last moment.
Behind both shifts lie three mechanisms that are closely connected: AI-powered personalisation, trust as a measurable conversion factor, and video as a full-blown sales channel. All three have been close to my thinking long before they became standard business priorities.
Personalisation Is No Longer a Bonus
What interests me most is what exactly is driving this growth. More than a third of online purchases today are accompanied by some form of artificial intelligence: a chatbot, visual search, or a recommendation engine.
Shops that tailor their offer to each individual customer achieve 26 % higher average order values and customers spend a third more time on their sites.
This is precisely why I invested in data personalisation through Targito long before it became a necessity. A targeted offer in a newsletter, on the website or in advertising is the difference between a customer who still knows you a year from now and one who confuses you with ten other shops.
It is also worth noting that almost a seventh of all e-commerce traffic now comes from AI interfaces such as ChatGPT or AI search, not from classic Google. This is a channel that barely existed two years ago and today must be treated as a standard part of customer acquisition.
Trust Sells Better Than a Discount
More than 70 % of people abandon a purchase just before completing it. The main reasons include distrust of the payment process, an unclear total price, and doubts about product quality.
This is exactly where my investment in Mylou Company, formerly Testuj.to, makes sense. Verified reviews from real customers are the tool for dissolving this kind of distrust before the customer clicks away from the basket.
Shops that also add clear trust signals directly in the checkout see measurably higher completed conversions. The solution is not an extra discount. It is removing the last reason to hesitate.
Video Sells Faster Than a Product Description
Social and live commerce will surpass 900 billion dollars globally this year for the first time. Live streaming linked to purchasing delivers 6-10x higher conversion than a standard e-shop, with significantly lower return rates.
I see this as confirmation of the direction taken by another of my investments: Webout.me and video content personalisation. The goal is not video as an added effect. The goal is to hold attention for a few extra seconds and turn passive viewing into an active decision to buy.
Among sports clubs and fan communities, where Webout.me is growing fastest, this mechanism works even more powerfully. Loyalty to a team makes a viewer a far more willing buyer than in an anonymous e-shop.
Details Matter Even for Physical Products
For companies that make physical products, such as Dreamy or Tokyobike, I track slightly different numbers.
Mobile now accounts for 62 % of all online purchases, but mobile conversion still lags behind desktop, mainly due to complex checkout flows. Almost half of shoppers abandon their basket because of unexpected delivery costs, and more than 70 % of customers today treat free delivery as a given, not a bonus.
These are details that do not sound strategic, but they determine revenue just as much as the quality of the product itself. Even the best mattress or pet food will not sell if the delivery price is set wrong or the checkout does not work properly on a phone.
What This Means for Central Europe
Most of these numbers are driven by Asia and the US market, where growth exceeds 15 % annually, while mature European markets grow more slowly. Even so, the direction applies to Central Europe too.
A smaller market like the Czech one has the advantage of being able to adopt and test what already works elsewhere more quickly, without having to discover the dead ends myself. This is precisely why I follow global data just as closely as domestic numbers: the domestic ones tell me where we are now, the global ones tell me where it is all heading.
This year’s numbers confirm that personalisation, trust, video and a smooth purchase experience without unnecessary friction are the bets I got right. E-commerce is a fast game though, so the main priority is not to sleep through the next round.
Data source: Digital Applied, eCommerce Statistics 2026.
