HN.cz: The era of crazy e-commerce growth is over. That makes its future even more interesting.

E-commerce has left its period of explosive growth behind. It continues to grow – but differently than before. The main battle today is no longer about whether people will shop online, but about efficiency, profitability, and the ability to survive long-term in an increasingly complex ecosystem. Against this backdrop, logistics, efficiency, artificial intelligence, and – perhaps surprisingly – community building are becoming decisive factors.

Where global and Czech e-commerce stands today

According to EMARKETER forecasts, global online retail sales were expected to reach USD 6.419 trillion in 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 6.8%. E-commerce simultaneously accounts for 20.5% of total global retail. Compared to 2024, this marks further progress – but without dramatic leaps.

A straightforward conclusion is clear: after the boom years, e-commerce is now operating as a mature market. Online shopping is a normal part of everyday life, and further growth is no longer driven by people switching from physical stores. Growth now comes at the expense of competitors – through better offers, service, and efficiency.

Czech e-commerce in 2025, according to Heureka Group and APEK, reached a turnover of CZK 206 billion, representing year-on-year growth of over 6%. The previous year’s turnover was CZK 194 billion. At first glance these are positive numbers – but they conceal a fundamental shift. Growth is no longer “free”. The structure of growth is changing, as is the way companies think.

Several reasons lie behind the slowdown

One of the main reasons is a greater focus on unit economics and profitability. Revenues are not growing as fast because companies are being forced to pay closer attention to whether each item sold actually makes economic sense. The era of growth at the cost of long-term losses is ending – or at least significantly curtailed.

At the same time, we are watching the behaviour of the largest players, who often maintain high turnover even at the cost of lower profitability. The reason is market consolidation. For these companies, the key is to be visible, to be big, and to be first in line for potential buyers. Their profit comes not from operations, but from selling the company.

Another change is less visible in the statistics. We cannot see in detail where growth is coming from. Traditional e-shops selling FMCG goods are no longer the only engine. New areas of e-commerce are growing rapidly – particularly segments around supplements, longevity, sustainable health, and self-care. New consumer trends today often drive at least part of the growth across the entire sector.

The Czech market is also running up against its own size. Consumers are increasingly sophisticated and routinely shop across the EU. It is not unusual for a specific product – a particular type of bathroom tap, for instance – to be cheaper and immediately available from a German e-shop, while delivery in the Czech Republic takes several weeks. For manufacturers and distributors, the Czech market is small and logically not a priority.

Into this mix come Chinese marketplaces, which will very soon start behaving like local sellers. They are already building logistics centres in the Czech Republic. The question is not whether they will affect the market, but how they will deal with European legislation.

While in the past e-shops won by mastering personalisation, mobile UX, social commerce, trust-building, or experiments with AR and VR – today technology is evaluated far more pragmatically. It must primarily reduce operating costs, lower error rates, and improve margins. This applies equally to marketing, logistics, warehouse management, and pricing.

Customers also routinely shop from abroad. Globally, 55% of online shoppers report purchasing from foreign retailers. This increases competitive pressure but also opens a path to growth through expansion.

AI is changing how people shop

2025 was a turning point from the perspective of artificial intelligence. According to Salesforce, 39% of consumers already use AI when searching for and selecting products. During the holiday period of 2024, 19% of purchases were demonstrably influenced by AI or AI agents.

Customers want AI – but only when used correctly. Capgemini reports that 71% of consumers want generative AI integrated into the shopping experience. At the same time, poorly deployed AI can undermine the authenticity of the relationship with the customer. The goal is not automation at any cost, but a better customer experience.

AI also has enormous potential in warehouse optimisation, demand forecasting, and pricing. By working with historical data and seasonality patterns, it can help with optimal stock levels and margins. Meanwhile, the importance of “fast and free delivery” is fading. Customers today prefer flexibility – collection points, parcel lockers, and the ability to choose delivery times.

The marketing spiral problem

One of the greatest risks in today’s e-commerce is a spiral of simplification. The e-commerce world is growing more complex by the day, with more tools and options than ever – but teams are not growing to match. Companies therefore logically reach for solutions that promise to “solve everything”.

Large multinational platforms are a typical example. They offer free analytics and simplify decision-making – but naturally steer you towards higher investment in their own advertising systems. The result is rising costs, but not necessarily rising profitability. The e-shop gradually becomes more of a warehouse than a real merchant.

Data from VIVnetworks, which covers roughly 80% of the e-commerce market in performance advertising across CEE, shows that those who escape this spiral are primarily those who invest in education, use independent marketing measurement tools, and diversify traffic sources. The key is to avoid directly outbidding competitors in auctions for the same customer – especially when Chinese marketplaces with virtually unlimited resources are on the other side.

Building communities as a long-term advantage

This brings us to something fundamental: communities. Building communities is not a quick tactic or a solution for everyone. It is a long-term approach – but one that represents one of the few competitive advantages that no one can take away from you.

Basic CRM and mass communication are no longer enough to retain customers. Data from email marketing working with millions of transactions makes clear that personalisation, relevance, and a sense of exclusivity are what drive repeat purchases and loyalty. AI plays a central role here, but the emotional experience must be consistent at every brand touchpoint.

Reviews are also part of community work with customers. Authentic experiences from real users significantly increase brand trust, support both retention and acquisition, and the entire review industry is growing rapidly today. AI here serves to improve efficiency of processes – not to generate content, which must remain authentic and compliant with EU regulations.

A less explored phenomenon in the Czech Republic is building partner communities. The exceptions are large players like Notino, who systematically work with partners across markets. These partners have detailed knowledge of their audiences, are often technologically sophisticated, and can quickly implement new approaches including AI. From thousands of such collaborations, it is clear that they are the ones who can sustain e-shops even through economically difficult periods.

Equally important is an internal community of colleagues. Companies that consistently seek curious and passionate people have a greater chance of navigating difficult times. AI is now accelerating HR processes, but the human dimension remains key. In a small country like the Czech Republic, personal connections inevitably meet again – as colleagues, partners, or customers.

How to sum up the future of e-commerce growth

E-commerce will continue to grow – but at a steady pace. The winners will not be those who spend the most, but those who master execution: logistics, service, product range, and relationships. AI will increasingly influence the discovery phase and the entire purchase funnel. And communities – customer, partner, and internal – will become one of the key pillars of long-term stability.

Original source: hn.cz